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"GFJ Commentary"
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"GFJ Commentary" presents views of members and friends of GFJ on the relations of Japan with the rest of the world and other related international affairs. The view expressed herein is the author's own and should not be attributed to GFJ.
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New Putin Doctrine: Prelude to "New Cold War"?
By IIJIMA Kazutaka
Journalist
Russian President Vladimir PUTIN has forcibly advanced annexation of Ukraine and Crimean peninsula to Russia, raising concerns among countries of the West that "he intends to transform drastically the post-war international system." In which direction does he intend to transform it? "The new Putin doctrine," presumably a key to this question, has emerged from his public address, says Vladimir RYZHKOV, 47, former member of Russia's lower house of parliament and a liberal political commentator, in an article he contributed to Moscow Times.
Analyzing PUTIN's address on March 18 in which he proposed annexation of Crimean peninsula to the upper and lower houses of parliament, RYZHKOV holds that Russia, taking advantage of its military might, appears to defend at all cost its special interests in the former Soviet bloc. In this article, RYZHKOV refers to President PUTIN's new doctrine composed of seven points.
The first point is that "Russia no longer regards the West as a trustworthy partner." President PUTIN asserts that "Although the Cold War is already history, the West is still in pursuit of containment policy against Russia as in the days of the Cold War. Russia therefore has no choice but to act in order to cope with this harsh reality from now on." The second point is that "Russia no longer considers itself part of the European civilization." The reason is that, while Russia is a democratic country, it is a special type of democracy. The country rejected communist and pseudo democracy." To be specific, it is emphasized that "If more than ninety percent of the nation is in support of annexation of Crimean peninsula, the annexation should be considered legitimate in accordance with the democratic principles."
The third point is that "The international law is no longer a system of rules or set of reference point." According to President PUTIN, "The international law has been reduced to a menu of options from which every powerfull state is free to choose whatever suites its interests." He also stresses that "Russia is now a powerfull country and thus has the right to flaunt its own double standards just like the U.S. "
The fourth point is that "the new doctrine is applies to the entire territory of the former Soviet Union." This is a warning that "Russia will take action if any of the former Soviet republics intends to join EU or NATO." It is assumed that "Russia will call on other major powers of the world to amend the rules of the game." The fifth point is that "A great power could meddle in the domestic affairs of small countries if the military and political interests of the former are exposed to risk." This could be regarded as "practical approval of interference with the internal affairs of small nations by great powers."
The sixth point is that " International organizations as the United Nations now play a greatly diminished role." This indicates "how often the U.S. and its allies conducted military operations without authorization of the United Nations in the past twenty years." The seventh point is that "the new doctrine is based on a fundamentally new balance of power in the world." This calls for responses to a new global environment in which "while the military and economic influence of the West is in sharp decline, emerging powers in Asia and Africa are gaining influence," and foresees that "the world will become extremely unstable and the number of military conflict will increase."
Having given an overview of the new doctrine with the seven points above, RYZHKOV warns that President PUTIN's successful annexation of the Crimean peninsula is a dangerous sign of Russia's intention to venture into other areas. This seems to indicate the possibility of Russia's military intervention into such areas with many Russian inhabitants as east Ukraine and Pridnestrovie in eastern Moldova. This new doctrine could be interpreted as Russia's bold distrust against the U.S. and Europe with intentions to take any measures to defend at all cost its special interests in the former Soviet bloc with little regard to the international law.
This is an accelerated version of "maintenance of influence upon the former Soviet bloc" and it is assumed that Russia will hereafter undertake seriously the task of establishing "Eurasian Union" which is virtually a revival of former Soviet Union. Is this doctrine is to be implemented, there would be a danger of outbreak of a "new Cold War" between Russia and countries of the West.
(This is the English translation of an article written by IIJIMA Kazutaka, Journalist, which originally appeared on the e-Forum "Giron-Hyakushutsu" of GFJ on April 8, 2014.)
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For more views and opinions in the backnumber of "GFJ Commentary," the latest of which are as follows, please refer to:
http://www.gfj.jp/eng/commentary/backnumber.html
No.54 "The Ideal of Soft Power Diplomacy for a Liberal International Order"
by SAKAI Nobuhiko, Director of Japan Institute of Nationalism Studies and former Professor of the University of Tokyo
(31 March 2013)
No.53 "The Sino-Korean anti-Japanese Axis on Yasukuni Failed"
by WATANABE Yasushi, Professor, Keio University
(18 April 2014)
No.52 "Sanctity of Marriage"
by WATANABE Shoichi, Professor Emeritus, Sophia University
(27 December 2014)
No.51 "Strategic Possibilities for Japan's Agriculture"
by SHIMADA Haruo, Opinion Leader Governor, GFJ / President, Chiba University of Commerce
(25 October 2013)
No.50 "The Arrival of a New Era for the Japan-Africa Relations?"
by MUTSUJI Shoji, Lecturer, Yokohama City University
(16 August 2013)
No.49 "World Economy Divided into Blocs?"
by OGATA Rintaro, former Member of the House of Representatives
(19 June 2013)
"GFJ Updates"
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"GFJ Updates" introduces to you the latest events, announcements and/or publications of GFJ.
Event
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The 266th "Foreign Policy Luncheon" meeting on "On-Site Analysis of the Current Situation in the Korean Peninsula" Held
GFJ and its two sister organizations, The Japan Forum on International Relations and the Council on East Asian Community monthly organizes a "Foreign Policy Luncheon" meeting to provide an occasion for members of the three organizations to meet in an informal and confidential manner with senior officials of the Japanese Government and/or other experts and specialists in fields related to international relations. The 266th "Foreign Policy Luncheon" meeting on the topic of "On-Site Analysis of the Current Situation in the Korean Peninsula" was held on 3 June 2014. The keynote speaker was TAKESADA Hideshi, Professor, Takushoku University.
His views are as follows:
http://www.gfj.jp/e/roundtables/266_140603.htm
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