The Global Forum of Japan (GFJ) E-Letter

2 February 2012, Vol. 5, No. 1

Greetings,

We are sorry to inform that there were errors in the text of the "Global Forum of Japan (GFJ) E-Letter" (1 February 2012, Vol. 5, No. 1) delivered yesterday. Please replace the text delivered yesterday by the one we are sending to you below.

"The Global Forum of Japan (GFJ) E-Letter" is delivered electronically bimonthly, free of charge, to the readers in the world interested in Japanese thinking on the relations of Japan with the rest of the world and other related international affairs by GFJ, private membership organization in Japan for policy-oriented international exchanges.

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"GFJ Commentary" presents views of members and friends of GFJ on the relations of Japan with the rest of the world and other related international affairs. The view expressed herein is the author's own and should not be attributed to GFJ.

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Is It True That Nobody Could Predict the Fall of the Soviet Union?
                                     By YAMAMOTO Yuichi
                                     former Lecturer of University

According to Mr. IIJIMA Kazutaka's October 31 post on the BBS "Giron-Hyakushutu" of GFJ, a conference was organized by experts of Russian and East European affairs in Japan to the effect of concluding that no Japanese experts in the field could predict the fall of the Soviet Union. Certainly, self-reflection and self-criticism therefore are necessary and worthy of evaluation. However, if it is just a disguise for those experts to defend themselves and self-justify themselves, I should say that the real problem lies further deep. Which of these two points of view does reveal the real nature of the conference concerned?

At this conference, Professor ITO Takayuki of Waseda University is quoted to have said, "Then among the Japanese experts prevailed a view that in socialist states there existed a social system that is utopian-oriented, highly integrated and functioning for better or worse, and they were sympathetic to the socialism." The professor continued to say, "Although there were recurrences of events leading to the decline of the authority of the party, most of them did not believe the decline of the Soviet Union."

In conclusion, Professor ITO is said to have admitted, "Experts in Russian and East European affairs are also children of the times. They had a utopian longing for advanced countries as did people of the developing country. They also had a positive image of the victors as did the losers."

In my opinion, Professor ITO's acknowledgement of his own misjudgment and that of his fellow experts is a progress and worth evaluating. However, I must suspect that his conclusion which sounds as if "all the Japanese experts" of the time committed the same mistake is another attempt for "self-vindication and self-justification in disguise"? In fact, there had already been heard here and there voices to predict the stagnation and fall of the Soviet Union more than 20 years before it actually happened (since the late Brezhnev era) on the basis of multi-faceted, positive study.

A good example of such studies is "After Brezhnev: Sources of Soviet Conduct in the 1980s," which is the classical work of 35 top-level Soviet experts organized by Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in the United Sates for over one and a half years from 1981.

Needless to say, you may add "The Grand Failure" by Zbigniew Brzezinski, which became a best seller across the United States for its forecast of the fall of the Soviet Union one year before the fall of the Berlin Wall.

You cannot make excuses by claiming, "It's what occurred in the United States," because the entire translation of these two books were published by ITO Kenichi in Japan immediately after their publication in the U.S. In addition, I would like to point out the fact that Mr. ITO Kenichi raised the likelihood of the Soviet fall several times in journals, such as Bungei Shunju and Shokun, before it became real.

(This is the English translation of an article which originally appeared on the BBS "Giron-Hyakushutsu" of GFJ on 5 November, 2011, and was posted on "GFJ Commentary" on 16 December, 2011.)

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For more views and opinions in the backnumber of "GFJ Commentary," the latest of which are as follows, please refer to:
http://www.gfj.jp/eng/commentary/backnumber.html

No.39 Government and People Together Must Address the Resolution of the Futenma Issue

by YUSHITA Hiroyuki, former Ambassador to the Philippines
(31 October 2011)

No.38 The Death of Osama bin-Laden

by Bruce MAZLISH, Professor Emeritus of Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)
(5 August 2011)

No.37 Is Osama Bin Laden a Criminal or a Hero?

by ITO Masanori, Company Worker and Individual Member of the Japan Forum on International Relations
(26 June 2011)

No.36 Now is the Time for the Third Nation Building

by YUSHITA Hiroyuki, former Ambassador to the Philippines
(28 April 2011)

No.35 On "Japan-U.S. Relations in the Era of Smart Power

by YAMAZAWA Ippei, Professor Emeritus of Hitotsubashi University
(1 March 2011)

No.34 Black Joke in Terrorism in Russia

by OOTOMI Akira, Editor in Chief, Chechen News
(28 February 2011)

"GFJ Updates" introduces to you the latest events, announcements and/or publications of GFJ.

The Japan-U.S.-China Dialogue "The Asia-Pacific Region in Transition and the Japan-U.S.-China Relations"

The Global Forum of Japan (GFJ), under the co-sponsorship with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, China Association of Asia-Pacific Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Science and The Japan Forum on International Relations, will convene The Japan-U.S.-China Dialogue "The Asia-Pacific Region in Transition and the Japan-U.S.-China Relations" in Tokyo on February 24, 2012.

This dialogue will feature such eminent panelists as Prof. TAKAHARA Akio of the University of Tokyo and Prof. KIMURA Fukunari of Keio University from the Japanese side, and Dr. Douglas PAAL of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and Dr. Mely Caballero ANTHONY of the ASEAN Secretariat from the foreign side.

For more information, please refer to; http://www.gfj.jp/jpn/dialogue/42/info.pdf

The readers of GFJ E-Letter are invited to pay attention to the notice of GFJ that it will offer an "Invitation Ticket" to the first 20 applicants for participation in the Dialogue. Should you wish to attend the Dialogue, please inform us of (1) your name, (2) affiliation, (3) title, (4) phone number, (5) e-mail address, and (6) the sessions you wish to attend by e-mail ( dialogue@gfj.jp ) by February 16. We will send an "Invitation Ticket" to the first 20 applicants by e-mail by February 17. Unless an "Invitation Ticket" is sent to you by then, please understand that you are not included in our invitation list this time. English-Japanese simultaneous interpretation will be provided at the Dialogue.

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The 9th Japan-ASEAN Dialogue "The Future of ASEAN Integration and Japan's Role --Japan-ASEAN Partnership after New Joint Declaration --"

The Global Forum of Japan (GFJ), under the co-sponsorship with ASEAN Institutes of Strategic and International Studies (ASEAN-ISIS), will convene The 9th Japan-ASEAN Dialogue "The Future of ASEAN Integration and Japan's Role --Japan-ASEAN Partnership after New Joint Declaration --" in Tokyo on March 14, 2012.

This dialogue will feature such eminent panelists as Dr. Rizal SUKUMA of Centre for Strategic and International Studies and H.R.H. Prince NORODOM Sirivudh of Cambodian Institute for Cooperation & Peace from the ASEAN side, and Prof. URATA Shujiro of Waseda University, Dr. HATOYAMA Yukio of former Prime Minister and Prof. TERADA Takashi of Waseda University from the Japanese side.

For more information, please refer to; http://www.gfj.jp/jpn/dialogue/43/info.pdf

The readers of GFJ E-Letter are invited to pay attention to the notice of GFJ that it will offer an "Invitation Ticket" to the first 20 applicants for participation in the Dialogue. Should you wish to attend the Dialogue, please inform us of (1) your name, (2) affiliation, (3) title, (4) phone number, (5) e-mail address, and (6) the sessions you wish to attend by e-mail ( dialogue@gfj.jp ) by March 7. We will send an "Invitation Ticket" to the first 20 applicants by e-mail by March 8. Unless an "Invitation Ticket" is sent to you by then, please understand that you are not included in our invitation list this time. English-Japanese simultaneous interpretation will be provided at the Dialogue.

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