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"GFJ Commentary of the Month"
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"GFJ Commentary of the Month" presents a monthly publication of views of members of GFJ on relations of Japan with the rest of the world and other related international affairs. The views expressed herein are the author's own and should not be attributed to GFJ.
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The Question is Afghanistan
By IRIYAMA Akira
Guest Professor of Cyber University
Executive Research Advisor of International Development
Center of Japan
Setting aside the question of Iraq, the U.S. President-elect Barack Obama and the incumbent President George W. Bush seem to have agreed on the need to send more troops to Afghanistan. Obviously, they aim at subduing al-Qaeda and its leader Osama bin Laden as the direct perpetrators of September 11 terrorist attacks.
Originally, the U.S. invasion of Iraq was carried out on the grounds that Iraq would have possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and been closely linked with al-Qaeda. It was also rumored that al-Qaeda was responsible for the existence of WMD in Iraq. However, those grounds turned out to be baseless. Some say the U.S. were manipulated by disinformation fed by al-Qaeda, while others say that U.S. knowingly carried out the invasion. Although the U.S. backed up the establishment of a new administration led by Nouri al-Maliki in Iraq, it was not surprising that a new administration soon sank into a morass of corruption. Besides, the security is far from being restored, thus diluting the administration's political commitment. Now that things have come to this pass, the best way for the U.S. to escape from this quagmire is to retreat from Iraq sooner or later, leaving the entire affairs to the Iraqi government. Then, the question is Afghanistan.
How could the U.S. possibly alleviate its own wrath without wiping out its archenemy, al-Qaeda, and above all, Osama bin Laden? After the U.S. overthrew the Taliban regime on the account of its cooperative ties with al-Qaeda, both Taliban and al-Qaeda turned to guerrilla tactics. It is probably true for the U.S. that nothing can be done especially for al-Qaeda, who hid in the mountains near the border with Pakistan. For the time being, it is realistically the only viable option for the U.S. to close a bargain with Taliban remnants, and patiently take the time to contain al-Qaeda. Mr. General David H. Petraeus, Commander of U.S. Military Central Command, is said to have taken this option. Mr. Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani journalist, also strongly advocates this option together with Mr. Barnett R. Rubin, in the Foreign Affairs magazine (November/December 2008).
I am not sure if the Bush administration makes a move in this direction during little time left in its tenure. It is the same old game played by the U.S. to narrow down the to-do list of the administration when it is too complicated. Recent policy of the U.S. towards North Korea without due concern for Japan might be one of its by-products.
(This is the English translation of an article which originally appeared on the BBS "Giron-Hyakushutsu" of GFJ on 10 November, 2008, and was posted on "GFJ Commentary" on 10 December, 2008.)
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For more views and opinions in the backnumber of "GFJ Commentary," the list of which for the past six months is as follows, please refer to:
http://www.gfj.jp/eng/commentary/backnumber.html
No.19 Hailing Prime Minister Aso's Stance towards China
by YUSHITA Hiroyuki, Visiting Professor of Kyorin University
(20 November 2008)
No.18 Georgia Crisis Reveals Limits of the European Neighborhood Policy
by KOKUBO Yasuyuki, Professor of University of Shizuoka
(15 October 2008)
No.17 Japan's 'Virtue' and the Abduction Issue
by YAMAUCHI Masayuki, Professor of The University of Tokyo
(30 September 2008)
No.16 On Japan's Use of Space for Defense Purposes
by KINOSHITA Hiroo, Advisor of National Small Business & Information Promotion Center
(23 August 2008)
No.15 For the Agriculture with Security, Safety, Low Price and Stability
by IWAKUNI Tetsundo, Member of the House of Representatives (Democratic Party of Japan)
(24 July 2008)
No.14 Promote Active Diplomacy in the Arctic Circle
by KAWAI Masao, Visiting Professor of Hakuoh University
(20 June 2008)
"GFJ Updates"
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"GFJ Updates" introduces to you latest events, announcements and/or publications of GFJ.
Announcement
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The Global Forum of Japan (GFJ), under the co-sponsorship with The National Committee on American Foreign Policy(NCAFP), will convene "Japan-US Dialogue: US-Japan Relations Under the New Obama Administration" with the participation of distinguished panelists from the US and Japan in Tokyo on April 24, 2009.
Barak Obama took his oath of office to become the first black president on January 20, calling "New Era of Responsibility" in his inaugural speech. The world is facing an unprecedented crisis both economically and politically. In this "Dialogue," which will be a closed-door meeting, the panelists will frankly discuss how the two countries should deal with these crises and what will be their implications for a new regional order in East Asian region.
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