The Reelection of Mr. Trump


and Its Geopolitical Impact

By NISHIMURA Mutsuyoshi

<President Trump’s reelection>

Mr. Trump is set to become US president again. Under his presidency, national priorities and personal priorities coexisted with equal value. And his sentiments and intuition take precedence over facts and logic. At any rate, he will again enter the White House with a sense of vengeance. He would try to pursue unrestricted power and authority.

From the perspective of traditional international security, all this will lead to more instability and unpredictability. It may even create cracks in the liberal democratic coalition of nations. What will happen to the Japan-U.S. security system in the future?...one must ask.

During his last presidency, Mr. Trump strongly complained about the low defense spending by European countries on NATO and threatened that the U.S. would withdraw from the organization. He even implied that he would let Russia attack European countries by force.

He threatened Europeans by declaring… "If you want the U.S. to protect you, help yourselves.” In the end, European nations increased their defense spending. But the resulting tensions between the U.S. and Europe undermined U.S. credibility on security issues.

<The Europeans should bring Russia into the democratic camp>

European countries must be particularly nervous about the reelection of President Trump. They took lessons. They know they can avoid being annoyed again by the American President if they take some "preemptive measures."

In my opinion, the most effective "preemptive measures" for Europe is to bring Russia into the Western liberal camp. Once Russia becomes a part of free Europe, the military alliance called NATO will become unnecessary. This would not only be a blow to Mr. Trump but also a chance for the Europeans to look back at him. Europeans will surely try to hasten the arrival of the post-Putin era, offer massive amounts of economic aid, and quickly get Russia on the liberal side of Europe.

It is possible that President Trump will move to establish and strengthen his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yet, how will the Russian people act and react in this situation is another question.

A return to strict dictatorship in Russia is possible but unlikely if one listens carefully to what a large number of world-renowned scholars and political experts so far said and discussed.

<Will Russia change?>

Russia will change for sure. It will eventually transform itself in a democratic direction. There are a huge number of political leaders and academic experts on international affairs both in the United States and Europe who believe so. The European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, for one, declared back in 2021 that Russia can be democratized(1). It indicated that the democratization of Russia is the consensus of European nations.

<The coming of the Free Eurasian Era?>

Of course, there will be a huge amount of twists and turns. Yet, once Russia finally turns itself into a democracy or any seminal form thereof, there will be a vast chunk of the hemispheric landmass of liberal democracy extending from Lisbon to Vladivostok. Thus, the birth of free Eurasia will eventually become a reality(2).

If realized, it would be a geopolitical change of considerable historic proportions. The geo-economics of the region is also filled with great potential. Siberia's abundant fossil energy resources and natural energy resources such as wind and solar power will induce big domestic and foreign investments. If the new Russian government's policies are successful, large-scale investments will be poured in from all over the world.

<Conclusion>

In the face of the reality that Mr. Trump has been re-elected president of the United States again, Japan should join European countries to approach Russia and help the nation achieve geopolitical change in free Eurasia. Japan, the U.S., and Europe will all benefit. A new dynamic for peace and growth will be born that might be called “Pax Eurasiana”. Of course, China can join this new dynamism in the vast and free Euro-Asian region. Thus Eurasia can be a new engine for global peace, stability, and growth.

• (1) MEPs call for new EU strategy to promote democracy in Russia (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/press-room/20210910IPR11925/meps-call- for-new-eu-strategy-to-promote-democracy-in-russia)
• (2) “A New Geopolitical Horizon Over Eurasia: In praise of Pax Eurasiana” the e-Forum “Giron-Hyakushutsu” of GFJ on April 24, 2024.

(This is the English translation of an article written by NISHIMURA Mutsuyoshi, Former Director-General of the European Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, which originally appeared on the e-Forum “Giron-Hyakushutsu” of GFJ on November 11, 2024.)